May 20, 2009 If a blackjack table allows late surrendering, that means the player is allowed to give up half of his bet and keep half of his bet instead of playing out his hand. An example would be if you had a 16 versus a dealer's facecard showing. You are likely to lose the hand whether you hit or stand. Hard Blackjack Hands. In the simplest of terms, a hard blackjack hand is any two-card total which does not include an ace. Here are some examples: 10 – 2 = Hard 12; 9 – 4 = Hard 13; 7 – 7 = Hard 14; 8 – 7 = Hard 15; 10 – 6 = Hard 16; A hard hand is one that can usually risk being busted with just one hit.

BlackjackLover

According to the Wizard of Odds, the variance for six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no double after split, no re-splitting aces, and no surrender is 1.295. Does this mean that if the expected return is 99.57%, the probability that the return will be between 96.156% (99.57-(3*√1.295)) to 102.984% (99.57+(3*√1.295)) is about 99.7%? Also, how do I use the covariance?

If a blackjack table allows late surrendering, that means the player is allowed to give up half of his bet and keep half of his bet instead of playing out his hand. An example would be if you had a 16 versus a dealer's facecard showing. You are likely to lose the hand whether you hit or stand.
What does it mean to 'Surrender'? Some types of Blackjack games, you will have the choice to save half your wager by surrendering your hand. When you surrender you are essentially folding your hand, in order to get back half your wager. There is only a handful of situations when you should surrender your hand.

ChesterDog

Thanks for this post from:

According to the Wizard of Odds, the variance for six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no double after split, no re-splitting aces, and no surrender is 1.295. Does this mean that if the expected return is 99.57%, the probability that the return will be between 96.156% (99.57-(3*ã1.295)) to 102.984% (99.57+(3*ã1.295)) is about 99.7%? Also, how do I use the covariance?

On this Wizard page, the expected value, variance, and covariance for one hand of blackjack with the rules dealer stands on soft 17, no double after split, no re-splitting aces, and no surrender are -0.00573, 1.295, and 0.478, respectively.
The return is 1 - 0.00573 = 0.99427. Suppose you are flat betting one unit on one hand of blackjack per round. The standard deviation of your return depends on how many rounds you play. If you play 10,000 rounds, for example, the standard deviation of your average return is the square root of this quantity: 1.295/10,000, which is 0.01138. So your average return would have a 99.73% chance of falling in the range 0.99427 - 3*(0.01138) to 0.99427 + 3*(0.01138), which is 96.01% to 102.84%.
Now, here is where the covariance, 0.478, is used: suppose instead of betting one unit on one hand of blackjack per round, you bet 1/2 unit on each of two hands of blackjack per round. The variance per round would then be 2 * 0.5^2 * 1.295 + 2 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.478 = 0.8865. And if you play 10,000 rounds, the standard deviation of your average return is the square root of 0.8865/10,000 = 0.009415. Then your average return would have a 99.73% chance of falling in the range 0.99427 - 3*(0.009415) to 0.99427 + 3*(0.009415), which is 96.60% to 102.25%.

Last edited by: ChesterDog on Oct 17, 2018

BlackjackLover

Thank you very much for the detailed explanation. Does this mean that if I bet 1/5 unit on each of five hands, the variance per round will be 5*0.2^5*1.295 + 5*0.2^5*0.478 = 0.0028368?

ChesterDog

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Vegas casino online promo codes. Blackjack concrete and mortar patch. Thank you very much for the detailed explanation. Does this mean that if I bet 1/5 unit on each of five hands, the variance per round will be 5*0.2^5*1.295 + 5*0.2^5*0.478 = 0.0028368?

Good question.
The variance in this case is 5*0.2^2*1.295 + 20*0.2^

Googlein Blackjack What Does Surrender Mean

2*0.478 = 0.6414.
An expression for the variance per round betting 1/n on each of n hands would be:
n * (1/n)^2 * 1.295 + n*(n-1) * (1/n)^2 * 0.478

Let’s face it, sometimes we are just having an off day, with bad hand after bad hand. And sometimes, surrendering is our best bet; an occasionally viable tactic in games of blackjack which allow the player to do so. Surrendering, as we explain in our glossary of blackjack terms, refers to the offer in some games styles of blackjack (mainly American versions) which allows players to forfeit their hand in the current round and get back half of their original wager. The option to do so is offered by some land-based casinos, and the majority of online casinos.

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If you have a hard hand of 14 and the dealer has an Ace on show, surrendering in order to retrieve half of your bet instead of quite possibly losing it all can be appropriate. Surrendering is a feasible option if you are dealt a poor hand and the dealer has a strong hand, but it has to be used in the right situation. Otherwise, it’s money down the drain that could have won.

Available Surrendering Options

Surrendering is only available as a first decision of a two-card hand. It is usually only offered in hole-card games (but see below for variations), where the dealer draws two cards and may or may not peek at the hole (face down card), before players make their decisions. But in general, surrendering will usually only be available directly after the dealer has checked for blackjack.

The variations we speak of are early and late surrender. Late surrender, explained above, refers to being able to do so in hole card games, only after the dealer has checked for a blackjack. It is the most common option at all types of casinos. If the dealer checks and does indeed have a blackjack, surrendering is thus made unavailable.

Blackjack Surrender Odds

Alternatively, early surrender is when you are allowed to surrender before the dealer checks (or if the dealer doesn’t check at all) for blackjack in hole-card games, or in a no-hole-card game, where the dealer does not draw a second card until all players have acted. As you can see, early surrender is significantly more favourable to the player than late surrender is, which is why early surrender is not often available.

When to Consider the Move

As mentioned above, surrendering can be an appropriate play if used at the right time. It may seem like a cowardly move which is not progressive or beneficial in the long-run, and it is if not used correctly: you’re wasting hands that have the potential to win. Only consider surrendering as a last possible resort on the very worst hands.

Blackjack Surrender Rule

There are only a few hands in which surrendering can be considered (late surrender). If you are lucky enough to be playing with the rare early surrender option, this allows for more flexibility and you might consider surrendering medium to low strength hands if the dealer holds an Ace (and the hole-card has not yet been examined).

Poor Hands to Consider for Early Surrender

You hold a total of 12 to 17 against a dealer’s Ace.
You hold a total of five to seven against a dealer’s Ace.
You hold a total of 14 to 16 and the dealer has a Ten.
You hold a total of 16 and the dealer shows a Nine.

Poor Hands to Consider for Late Surrender

Your hand totals a hard-15 and the dealer holds a 10-valued card or an Ace.
Your hand totals a hard-16 and the dealer holds a Nine, 10-valued card or Ace.
Your hand totals a hard-17 and the dealer holds an Ace.

How to Surrender in Blackjack

Surrender In Blackjack Strategy

At most land-based casinos, BJ tables will have rules on a placard for players to view, but it i